From The Desk of Her Royal Highness,
Princess Twilight Sparkle,
Chairmare of the Council of Harmony
50th of Autumn, 9721
Dear Emperor Iron Wing,
I am writing to you in response to your letter to our Sovereigns, Princess Luna and Princess Celestia demanding the "complete and unconditional surrender" of Equestria so that it may "be assimilated into the Griffon Empire". I am afraid that I must take issue with the idea that to refuse is to ensure "The utter annihilation of [our] species and it's way of life." as it appears you are woefully uninformed of Equestria's abilities as a world power as well as the limitations of your own nation. As such, I would like to ask that you consider the following facts before making a formal declaration of war.
First and foremost is the question of troop numbers. I fear that your claims of possessing "A griffon army unlike any in history" are wholly unfounded. Our current projections of your military strength estimate that 60% of your population is militarily trained and prepared for war with 3% in reserve and 1% as veterans that can be called back into service. While 64% is indeed an impressive amount given the size of your nation, my research shows that it pales in comparison to your ancestor Chief Iron Tail. As his descendant, I'm sure you're aware that after rallying the various griffon tribes of his era to his banner, his army is estimated today to have encompassed around 89% of the total griffon population at the time. In the future, I would ask that you do not engage in hyperbole in a serious matter such as this, as it leads to misinformation which can spell disaster for one or both sides.
Additionally, you seem to be operating under the assumption that our current military (which consists only of volunteers outside of wartime) is the extent of which our nation can defend itself from an invading force. I assure you that this is a crucial error and you should judge our army not by what it currently is but what it has the potential to become. With allowances for cultural differences between time-frames, and using past military conflicts as a baseline, I have determined that given the cultural significance of military service and the celebrity status of our air force, there will be an inclination for about 1/6th of the pegasi living in Equestria to volunteer for service in defense of their nation as our main fighting force. 1/12th of our earth pony population can be reasonably expected to join them either voluntarily or as conscripts to act in a non-combat support capacity. However, due to their naturally frailer physique on average as well as a general inclination toward intellectual and cultural pursuits instead of physical ones, unicorns will be unlikely to compose even 2% of our armed forces.
However, I would not advise you to assume that this means that the use of magic will not be an issue for you to overcome. While combat trained unicorns are relatively rare, some do exist and historically they act as force multipliers in support roles for our military. Unicorns possessing exceptional combat and magical skill, such as the historical figures Blazing Heart or White Ice, will prove more than capable of single-hoofedly defending an entire city, assuming of course that their considerable power is not directed as the spearhead of our army. Therefore, adjusting for the differences in our nations' population sizes, our potential army manages to match yours in terms of manpower, and by some estimates even exceed it by a fair margin. Thus any invasion will not be the steamroll you appear to think it will be.
Secondly, even beyond our nations' troop numbers, I don't believe you have accounted for the allies who will no doubt come to our defense. While your nation's isolationist policies have effectively destroyed any chance of forming alliances outside the caribou, (Though I am sure you are not so foolish as to ask for or accept their aid. The cultural differences alone would ensure that your alliance would implode before it ever truly started, and that does not even begin to touch upon the political nightmare it would cause for you personally.) Equestria has endeared itself to many of our neighbors.
The Crystal Empire has already declared full allied mobilization, Zebrica has offered monetary and medical support, and I understand that Princess Luna is in talks with the Chieftains of the Minotaur Tribelands, several of whom I do believe have been itching for a chance to clash with the griffons again. And as an aside, Princess Cadence's inspired outreach and integration program has endeared her greatly to the feudal changeling houses, and I've little doubt that if need be she could be convinced to discuss with the Queens about taking subversive actions against your government and command structure. This assumes of course that they do not do so on their own in an effort to garner good will from Equestria after Queen Chrysalis's disastrous coup attempt last year. Finally, while I'm skeptical that any actions they take would be done out of altruism, Dragonia is unlikely to allow a massive change in the power dynamic of nations such as Equestria's destruction and the expansion of the Griffon Empire to go unopposed.
This brings me to my third point. Even considering our military might, it is unlikely you would even get that far into a campaign against us that our armies would clash. You see, pegasi have evolved in our nation with near absolute authority over the weather. Outside of the Everfree Forest and Discord's Gorge (And we will return to discussing Discord soon, trust me) we will have complete aerial superiority. And believe me, Emperor, invading a nation with a border made out of hurricanes, thunderstorms, and monsoons will not end well for you. Assuming of course that we do not send those storms on a collision course with your nation. Nature itself will be used to defend against you, and powerful as your army is, I rather doubt it can fight against the sky itself and win.
However, let us work under the idea that even with all of the information presented above, you believe it is still a worthwhile venture to declare war and invade Equestria. On top of the potential weather conditions and the coalition of nations you would be facing, there is the matter of what Council Member Rainbow Dash has coined "The 'We Win' Buttons".
While not strictly Equestrian owned, The Crystal Heart will be used in our defense if need be. If you are unaware, the Crystal Heart possesses the power to indefinitely provide an Absolute Defense Barrier large enough to surround nations and powerful enough to repel any outside force. We can figuratively lock you out of the nation with no means to enter, and leave you to pound uselessly at the shield until you give up or run out of soldiers and resources to throw at us.
And while I do not doubt that your spies have informed you of the loss of the Elements of Harmony from our potential arsenal, I would remind you that Celestia's vault remains full of powerful artifacts to give us an edge should she decide to take a peek through her collection. Be it Celestia's personal weapon The Lightsaber; a sword reportedly capable of cutting through any physical object or Luna's Cloak of Shadows, which renders the user invisible, intangible, and undetectable by any known means. Perhaps the Staff of Gaia will be used, or they will activate the Sentinel of the Mountain. If you are particularly unlucky, Celestia and Luna may call for the aid of the Legendary Purple Dragon who sleeps deep under Canterlot. I assure you that my research is accurate about his powers and if all else fails, he will not. These are but a handful of treasures that Celestia has gathered over the years, and there are others still who's use and function even I remain unaware of. But if push comes to shove, I am certain that they will certainly spell doom for your army.
Speaking of Princess Celestia, let us suppose that even the threat of these artifacts being used against you is rendered moot. Let us say for the sake of argument that you succeed against incredible odds and bring about "The utter annihilation of [our] species and it's way of life.". Have you considered the ramifications of the destruction of Ponykind?
Four immortal beings exist within Equestria, Emperor Iron Wing. Celestia, Luna, Discord, and myself. We immortals, by definition, cannot be killed by conventional means. Additionally, each of us is possessed of incredible power, and I am confident in saying that "The utter annihilation of [our] species and it's way of life." would bring an unspeakable and unfathomable wrath upon the heads of those responsible, i.e. the Griffon Empire and you specifically. In the name of completeness, let us run down the list of these four immortals and their capabilities, shall we?
Princess Luna. Sovereign of the Moon and Night, Mistress of Dreams, Shadow Walker. Princess Luna possesses absolute control over the Moon and adores her subjects. She once threatened to doom Equestria to an eternal night when she felt she was being spurned by the ponies she cared so much for. The Realm of Dreams is hers to weave and control, and while she is powerful in the waking world, she is absolutely omnipotent in the Realm of Dreams. The creatures of the night all heed her call and command. Wereponies, vampires, the Star Beasts she calls her pets and all manner of other terrifying creatures will always answer her call. What do you suppose will occur if you destroy her adoring public, the support structure that keeps the dreaded Nightmare Moon at bay? Both the waking world and the realm of dreams will become an endless nightmare for your people. I have seen what an Ursa Minor is capable of first hoof. I can only shudder at the thought of what a pack of Ursa Majors could do when they share in the fury of their Princess.
Next on our list is Princess Celestia, Sovereign of Equestria, Daybringer, and as you know her The Sun Demon. I confess that I do not know what Princess Celestia would do should her nation be destroyed so utterly. She has spent an era nurturing and devoting a great deal of time and effort to the well being of her subjects. She loves them with all her heart and her despair would be total in the event of their destruction. But even beyond that despair, her rage would be equally all consuming. I have little doubt that she would be tainted by her despair and rage in a manner similar to Nightmare Moon, but in what form she would enact her vengeance is anypony's guess. Personally, I expect a lot of fire in your future should that ever comes to pass.
And as I promised, we have returned to Discord. The Great Mischief Maker, Master of Chaos, Once Ruler of not just Equestria but all the world. You may not be aware but Discord has recently reformed many of his more destructive qualities for the sake of friendship. He has his slip-ups from time to time and is always a work in progress, but with a parcel of land gifted to him by Princess Celestia to do with as he desires, and Council Member Fluttershy's help, he's made wonderful strides as a friend not just to her but many others, myself included. Much like Celestia, there are aspects to what he would do if his friends were forcibly taken from him that I cannot begin to fathom. Do remember the pain and suffering he brought to the entire world, and he did all of that simply because it amused him. One can't even imagine what it would look like if he directed all of that malice at one nation and then fueled it with a fury that would never end.
As for myself, I admit that I am not the most powerful or wise of the immortals we have here in Equestria. I am still very young, especially by the standards of those who measure their age in centuries. But at the same time I like to think I know myself well enough to understand how I would react, and much as it pains me to admit it in writing, I would likely be driven utter insanity. I am a very thorough, patient, and methodical pony Emperor Iron Wing. I am not somepony who will stop until she feels she'd done her very best to finish her work in the most complete manner possible. I can promise you with such certainly that it terrifies me that my wrath would not stop with the lives of your entire nation, but with the lives of every griffon who ever has or ever will exist throughout time and space. The rest of my existence would be dedicated to the utter genocide of the griffon species throughout the multiverse until I am either erased from existence or no other griffons exist.
And even then, if you somehow found a way to kill or imprison all four of us, you are looking at the destruction of our entire world. Do recall that the rotation of the sun and moon have always been risen and set by ponies, and without us to guide their motion, they would cease to revolve. No organic life would survive beyond a year as the sun-facing side cooked off all moisture and the dark side froze to the point that even its oxygen began to condense to liquid.
In conclusion, Emperor, there is absolutely no manner of this war that will bring you anything resembling victory. I have listed in great detail every scenario I am aware of on how this could play out and they all point to the simple fact that your war is doomed to fail. Ultimately however the decision to act is in your claws. I only mean to inform you of exactly what it is you face.
Most Sincerely Yours,
Princess Twilight Sparkle of Equestria
Chairmare of the Council of Harmony
