Being about to reply, Twilight suddenly remembered something Vi had once said to her: that the feeling of confusion should be taken as a signal to stop and think.

So she swallowed her response and thought.

She had no idea what the reason for Shining’s behavior could be. More importantly, she had no idea why it was reason for them to worry now. But Fluttershy had gone out of her way to communicate it to her in this way, presumably to avoid anyone listening in. Why?

If it weren’t for the ominous threat against the city, Twilight might have dismissed the entire thing on the spot, writing it off as Fluttershy being weirdly paranoid. But as it was – could those two things be connected? Was there something going on behind the scenes, and was doing the right thing about this now their chance to figure it out?

It seemed far-fetched, but if Fluttershy was willing to take it seriously, then so was she.

“Is there a reason why you don’t want to talk about it in our room?” she replied.

“I’m... not sure. Didn’t they choose it for us? Cadence and Shining?”

“I guess. Does that matter?”

“I don’t know. But there has been a threat... and I know Vi is worrying... I’m probably being silly.”

Twilight threw a quick look around. It was a short walk from the castle back to their room, but it should be enough.

“Okay,” she said to Fluttershy, “hold on.” She quickened her pace, catching up to Vi and Applejack. “There’s something urgent,” she murmured, so quiet that only the filly would hear it.

Vi looked at her, then at Applejack. “Talk to you later,” she said to the farmpony, and, without much ado, she fell behind to join ranks with Twilight. “What is it?”

“Something weird has happened and Fluttershy is afraid talking in our room isn’t safe. Do you think there is a way that could be true?”

“It could be true, of course. There are lots of ways. Do we need a safe way to talk?”

Did they? All that had happened was that Shining had behaved in a strange way... but she knew what Vi would say: the cost of being too careful was much lower than the cost of not being careful enough, therefore...

“I guess.”

“Can we go out tonight?”

“... I guess.”

“That should be safe.”

Twilight nodded. “Thanks.” She lowered her tempo, until she was on hoof with Fluttershy again.

“I’ll make us a way to talk freely. Don’t mention it until then.”

“What you do you think about going out tonight?” Twilight asked the group, as soon as they had arrived. “It’s the first time we’re all in Canterlot together. We could go see what the bars here are like.”

Rarity turned around on the spot. “Really?” she asked, sounding more than a little surprised. “I’d love to, but I didn’t expect you of all ponies to suggest such a thing.”

Twilight shrugged. “Surprises happen. You’re in?”

“Definitely.”

“Me too,” Rainbow said, “sounds fun.”

“I’m in, too,” Pinkie declared, “but what about Fluttershy? It would be unfair to just leave her alone!”

“You don’t have to. I’ll come with you.”

“You sure, sugar?”

“Yeah,” Pinkie said, “are you sure you know what a bar is, Fluttershy?”

“Yes I’m sure. And yes, Pinkie, I know what a bar is.”

“Okie-dokie-lokie!”

“Well,” Applejack said, “I dun wanna be the mare who spoils all the fun. If even Fluttershy’s game, then count me in, too.“

The cold hit them hard as they stepped out of the bar, where it had been warm and full. None of them had put on clothes, but they had ended up staying for almost four hours, and what had previously been an early evening was now a pitch black night, and it was cold, particularly for those of the group without feathers.

“Brrr,” Rarity made, “let’s go home, quickly. Can you give us some light, Twilight?”

“No light,” Twilight said, “and no going home. Come with me, I’ll explain in a bit. It’s important.”

“Huh?” Rainbow made, and Pinkie Pie and Applejack both said something to voice their confusion, but Twilight was already making her way off the main road and behind the building they’d just come out off. She knew this place, even though she had never been inside as a filly. There was a stretch of empty land right behind the bar, a couple of trees and even a lake. It was so dark that she wasn’t sure whether she’d find it at first, despite how close it was. But eventually, she noticed the ground descending, and she knew they were almost there.

“Twi,” Applejack said, as the pond came into vision, “whatever yer think yer doin’, this ain’t the time for it. It’s freezin’ out here.”

Twilight looked around, searching for the cleanest spot she could find, and eventually settled on a fallen log. “We have to talk,” she announced, “hold on.”

She closed her eyes, lit her horn, and one flash of light later, a blanket fell onto the ground beside her.

“Come here. We’ll all fit below there if we close ranks.”

“That is from the castle,” Rarity said amidst the confusion. “I do hope you have a second one to sit onto?”

“Nope. Sorry, Rarity. You can take a shower once we’re back.”

Rarity sighed, but she walked down the slope and sat on the log next to Twilight, followed by the others.

It was only then that Twilight realized her spell would have been visible for anypony following them. Oh well. It wasn’t like she expected anyone to be there. The whole thing seemed crazier to her by the minute, even though it had been her idea... sort of.

She lifted up the blanket, which was thankfully absurdly large for just a single pony, wrapping it around everyone.

“That spell was untraceable,” Vi’s voice came out of the darkness, “right?”

“Summoning the blanket? Yeah, you can’t trace teleportation. It’s almost the same as teleporting a pony.”

“Untraceable?” Spike asked. “What?”

Instead of replying, Twilight turned to the pony on her other side. “Tell them what happened, Fluttershy.”

Fluttershy repeated the story she had already told Twilight, though this time in a bit more detail. Most notably, she emphasized that she had been looking at Shining when he had suddenly attacked her.

“Forgive me,” said Rarity, “but is that all? If so, I don’t see why we are sitting out here in the dark.”

“I’m sorry,” Fluttershy said, “it’s my fault. Twilight was just finding a way for us to talk, it was me who... I thought it was necessary. I... sorry.”

“I think we have reason to be careful,” Vi’s voice said from the Rarity-side of Twilight. “Something is going on here. Twilight, back me up on this. Either the princess is playing us, or she’s being naive.”

Several sounds of surprise and protest could be heard, including from Rarity.

“I’m not sure I follow,” Twilight said. “You mean because she wasn’t concerned about the threat?”

“If you wanted to attack a city, what would be one of the absolute worst things you could do?”

Twilight thought about it, but it was Fluttershy who answered first. “Threaten them and get them to protect themselves.”

“Exactly. Whoever did it obviously has some amount of power, right? Why did she do this? Have you guys ever asked yourself that question? As of now, as far as I can tell, Canterlot and we have been responding in the obvious way. That probably means that, if someone has a plan she’s following and the threat was the first part of it, that plan’s still working. Asking whether the forcefield extends downward was just a way to get her to talk more about it, to see if that was really all she considered.”

“But what does that have to do with Shining?” Rainbow’s voice demanded.

“It is connected to Shining because of how probability works,” Vi said. “If you have two hypothesis about a situation, and some new event happens, whichever hypothesis predicted that something better gets a boost, and the other gets less likely. Something being really weird better predicts Shining suddenly kicking Fluttershy than everything being normal. And since Shining or Cadence probably chose our room, I think avoiding it is reasonable.”

“I think we’re making a whole lotta fuss over nothin’, here.”

“If you think so,” Vi said, “then give me an explanation for why Shining did what he did.”

“Dunno... maybe he thought it was in good fun.”

“I’m sure he didn’t think that,” Fluttershy said, “he was way too... I mean, he hit me too... hard... I have a real blue spot there... and it didn’t make sense, in that moment.”

“Has anyone you know ever done something similar to you?” Vi asked into the group.

“Rainbow Dash, kinda,” Applejack’s voice said, now sounding less confident.

“No,” Twilight replied, and so did everypony else, and Spike, in turn.

“And now, think of a possible explanation if something weird is going on.”

“Someone forced him to,” Twilight suggested.

“It’s probably just an odd reaction to putting the forcefield up this whole time.” Twilight noticed Rarity’s voice sounding a bit slow, realizing that she was still affected by the alcohol. “Who knows how much effort it takes?”

“I don’t think over-exhausting yourself magically has that effect,” Twilight held against her, “I’ve done it dozens of times.”

“Well, perhaps other ponies react differently?”

“Perhaps... but not as far as I know.”

“He’s being mind-controlled,” Spike’s voice said out of the Fluttershy direction, “by the same pony who’s been threatening the city!”

“Spike...” Pinkie asked, also sounding a bit off (she and Rainbow Dash had been enjoying themselves the most), “are you serious?”

“That’s certainly what it sounds like,” Vi found.

“What?” Rainbow protested. “That doesn’t make any sense! If somepony was controlling him, why would she make him kick Flutters?”

“I think the idea is that this was the one moment here he broke out of her control,” Twilight explained, “and that he wanted to do something, anything, to draw attention. But he’s not been acting like he’s been controlled otherwise.”

“Well,” Vi said, “if someone – it might not be a pony – is controlling him, she would make him act normally most of the time. Fluttershy. Does that theory... do you think it fits with what happened?”

“Um... yes. It did. It does. That’s how it felt like.”

“Ya sure yer aren’t just over-analyzin’ a whole lotta nothin’?”

“No,” Twilight and Vi replied simultaneously.

“But imagine if we’re right,” Twilight continued, “and we do nothing. I’d rather risk making a fool out of myself.”

“He also didn’t apologize,” Fluttershy suddenly said, “if it was some kind of accident, then why didn’t he apologize?”

“That’s a question either way,” said Vi. “Even if he was mind-controlled, the controller still ought to have made him apologize to make it less suspicious. She probably made a mistake... unless she wanted us to be suspicious, but that seems unlikely.”

A shudder ran down Twilight’s neck, even though it was now surprisingly warm, with all of them sitting so close together.

“Who is ‘she’?” Rarity demanded.

“It might be someone who is in regular contact with him. But it doesn’t have to be.”

There was a stretch of silence, until Pinkie Pie said out loud what everypony was thinking.

“Cadence?”

“But it doesn’t have to be,” Vi’s voice repeated.

“I’ve known Cadence since I was a filly,” said Twilight, “it’s not her.”

“Maybe it’s not actually Cadence. Maybe someone took her place... but that-”

“Took her place?” Rainbow echoed. “She’s an alicorn! I’m sure she can defend herself.”

“An alicorn of love,” said Twilight, “not of conflict. Whoever was strong enough to talk to Celestia from outside the city might be strong enough to overpower her, but...”

“What?” Spike’s voice asked, “What, Twilight?”

“There is a species which can transform themselves,” Twilight whispered. “Transform their bodies so that... they look just like somepony else.”

“Changelings?!” Fluttershy asked at once, sounding horrified. “That can’t be! Cadence can’t be a changeling!”

“That’s widely speculative,” Vi reminded her.

“What are these things?” Rainbow asked. “I’ve never heard of them before.”

“They are shapeshifters. They... uhm, they can take the appearance, the physical appearance of somepony. Anypony. Back in the day, they used to... th-they kidnapped a pony for a day, a... uhm... somepony who was in lo-... somepony in a relationship. They would pose as her to, uhm... to receive the love of their partner in their stead... that is what makes them strong. To feed off the love of... o-other creatures. B-but, but but, but that was all years ago. Many years. They haven’t shown themselves in over a century, I think.”

“Cadence and Shining Armor are in love,” Rainbow said, stating the obvious.

“That really makes no sense!” Rarity protested. “Girls, please! We have all met her! Shining has spent many hours with her these past days, no doubt. And life is so... rich! Rich with detail! Each pony is different! Each pony has her own little mannerisms! If Cadence wasn’t herself, somepony would notice!”

“It says in history books that this has always been the problem,” Vi said, which came as a surprise to Twilight, who couldn’t remember any books she had recommended her where changelings were even mentioned. “That’s the reason why they stopped... well, stopped being around, basically. Their plots would only work for short amounts of time, and it was getting riskier as ponies became more aware of the threat. It, um, it also says that they didn’t usually kill ponies. If they wanted to feed off a pony’s love, they’d either kidnap her but let her go later, or just choose a time when she wasn’t around in the first place. So even if what we fear is true, Cadence would probably still be alive.”

“That doesn’t actually answer what Rarity said,” Twilight pointed out.

“Right. But don’t assume your enemies are stupid. They’ve had a hundred and forty years to deal with this problem, maybe they figured something out.”

“I don’t believe it,” Twilight said honestly, “but I don’t want to bet against it, either.”

“So what do you want to do?” asked Fluttershy.

“No need to be clever,” Vi said in her stead, “let’s just tell Celestia. We can go right now.”

“We could have told her earlier today,” Rainbow said, “we’ve just been seeing her, remember?”

“Yeah,” Vi replied, “but it doesn’t matter what we could have done earlier. We didn’t. I agree that we should have, but we didn’t. It’s either correct to do it now or it’s not, it doesn’t matter what chances we’ve already missed.“

“But it is the middle of the night,” Rarity said. “Surely we can go tomorrow.”

“Don’t you think this is more important than disturbing the princess’ sleep?”

“Sneaking through Canterlot now?” Rainbow held against her. “When you think it’s dangerous?”

“I think it’s dangerous to wait. I don’t expect us to be attacked in the middle of Canterlot. There are guards on patrol, right, Twilight?”

“Yeah, of course.”

“Yer going too far, now,” Applejack said. “Let’s go back to our room, and speak to her first thing in the morning.”

“Why take the risk?” Vi asked. “I get that you don’t want to be embarrassed, but we have plausible reason to be suspicious. If it all turns out to be nothing, I think Celestia will understand.”

“This is the princess you are talking about,” Rarity reminded her, “she is not a pony whom you disturb without good reason.”

“Let’s have a vote,” Twilight suggested. “Everypony say whether you want us to go now or tomorrow. We’ll make a decision, and then we can go back home. Any objections?”

Nopony spoke up.

“Alright. Rarity?”

“Tomorrow, of course.”

“Rainbow?”

“Yeah, tomorrow.”

“Pinkie Pie?”

“I don’t know.” Pinkie sounded tense, and Twilight was reminded of how little she had said throughout all this. “You guys decide.”

“AJ?”

“Tomorrow.”

“Fluttershy?”

“Uhm, I think we should go right now.”

“Spike?”

“Right now.”

“Vi?”

“Right now.”

“Three for three,” Rainbow said, “Twilight?”

“Tomorrow,” Twilight decided. “I haven’t forgotten that you were right the last time you suspected something, Vi. Maybe you’re right again. But that’s why we’ll go tomorrow. One more day won’t make the difference.”

“Very well then.” Rarity slid off the log, and Twilight could see her shuddering immediately. “Can we go back now, please?”

“Let’s.” Twilight cast a light, faint but still bright enough for her to see the silhouettes of the other girls. She curled the blanket up into a ball, floating it beside her. An odd sight, no doubt, but it was probably too dark for anypony else to even see what it was.

As the only one who had been here before, Twilight took charge, leading the group at a quick pace. No-one said a word while they headed back to Castle Grounds. Twilight involuntarily winced as she spotted a guard, but he didn’t even say anything, merely giving her a nod as they passed by. Presumably, they had just gone out and stayed a bit late, which was probably nothing unusual.

She breathed a silent sigh of relief as they entered their room, and a feeling of safety took hold as she turned on the light. Rarity immediately made for the bathroom, followed closely by Applejack.

Twilight gave her blanket a sad glance. She clearly wasn’t very good at this; anyone watching would notice immediately that something was off. Perhaps if that someone was only listening, then there might have been a point to the maneuver they’d pulled, but Twilight doubted they’d be able to pretend for long. Sooner or later, one of them would slip and say something that would give them away.

She found herself regretting her decision already. They should have gone right away. But now it was too late. Now, the best way to avoid slipping up would be to avoid talking altogether. If they went straight to sleep, then perhaps, somepony listening in on them might actually be fooled.

Twilight lifted the blanket up in her magic, did her best to shove off the dirt, then simply crawled into bed, spreading it out above her. She knew that she wasn’t clean herself, that she’d get dirt onto the sheets this way, and that she ought to take a shower first, but she really didn’t care. Right now, the only thing that mattered was for this whole mess to be cleaned up tomorrow.

Twilight opened her eyes.

It was bright, the sun had already been risen. Suddenly, she remembered a snippet of her dream, a scene of them all going out to find the elements to defeat Nightmare Night, only this time, her feeling had been that they were going to fail...

She rolled around. Vi was lying in bed, reading a book. When she noticed Twilight moving, she looked up.

“Morning,” she said, quiet so as not to wake the others.

“Morning,” Twilight responded. She was about to say something about Cadence and Shining, only to remember that they weren’t supposed to talk here. Now, in the comfort of her bed, that seemed like a silly idea, and she was tempted to simply break it. But before she could decide, Vi floated a folded piece of paper over to her. Realizing that caution would have won out anyway, Twilight unfolded it and read.

I don’t think we’ll do very well acting as if everything is normal. We should avoid talking, just get up and tell Princess Celestia now.

You should wake the others. Perhaps make up a reason for why we should visit her (say a guard asked you to last night?). Or say we should go on with our regular duties and just tell them to come along and lead them there.

btw: Applejack is awake.

She turned around, looking at the third row of beds. Sure enough, Applejack was awake. Still lying in bed, she noticed Twilight looking, giving her a nod.

Twilight mirrored the gesture, then looked back at Vi. For a few seconds, she contemplated asking for a quill. Instead, she got out of bed in a swift motion.

“We should get up,” she announced in a loud voice. “These two will probably need a while,” she added towards the filly, nodding to the two beds beside them. “With how much they’ve been drinking, they must have some kind of a hangover.”

Vi looked worried, and also a bit upset. Meanwhile, less-than-enthusiastic noises could be heard coming from the other beds. Rarity had had quite a bit to drink also, and Twilight knew that she wasn’t exactly a morning pony. Once again, the filly’s plan to go right now might have been smart, but wasn’t practical. It would take ten more minutes, at least... but ten minutes later, Rarity declared that she still needed to use the bathroom before going out, which was only built for two ponies at a time and was presently still occupied by Pinkie and Rainbow.

At least none of them had slipped up and talked about their plans yet.

Twilight threw a glance towards Vi, and received another worried look in return. Well... but it was unlikely that those extra minutes would matter. It was-

There was a knock on the door.

“... Come in,” Twilight called, and Cadence walked into the room.

Author's Note

... part 3 coming soon ...