Kodama
Rationalism, Quantum Physics, and Bayesian Probability [9:45 (2)]
Previous Chapterjeë fami-nä eh-uah je-na
tee fami na-ha eh-jä
eh-na-a
ah-fa-na ua-ma-nä ua-ma-nä ua-ja-nä
gejjë-fa geme-na-há e-me na-ua je-eh-nä
gejjë-fa geme-na-há e-me na-ua je-eh-nä
Silently, Fluttershy pivoted around, prepared for anything. This was unusual, not a first, but very rare. Normally, she would enter the world from the outside, and with a certain distance to the events she was supposedly being sent to.
A rustling sound made her wince, her muscles tense. A moment later, she slowly breathed out, trying to calm herself. She was in the library. The flipping of pages, which was what this had sounded like, was hardly unusual.
To be more precise, she was on the second level of the library, standing at the 'edge' of the lower half. No ceiling separated this from the next higher level, one could get down easily by jumping, get up by flying, or use the couple of steps to her left. Presumably, Twilight was up there, reading something.
Not wanting to seem like she was sneaking up on her, Fluttershy walked to the left to take the conventional route up. The sound of her steps was responded to with the creaking of a bed from above, and soon she saw somepony standing at the top of the stairs.
It was not Twilight.
"Fluttershy! What happened?"
It was an unicorn filly, perhaps ten years old, whom she had never seen before but who was now rushing down the stairs to greet her. From her mannerism, Fluttershy concluded that she would have tried for a hug if her appearance hadn't ticked her off.
"Hi," Fluttershy said, unsure of how to respond, or how much-
"What happened?"
"I'm not the Fluttershy you know," Fluttershy responded, choosing the direct course. "Is, um-"
"What does that mean?" the filly asked immediately. "Are you a changeling? If not, tell me what we did after you first invited me to your cottage."
"No changeling," Fluttershy responded. "Twilight could do the spell. But I don't have any memories of you."
"Earlier memories?"
"Sure, but-"
"The age you left Cloudsdale?"
"Nine."
"The reason you cried for the first time?"
Fluttershy blinked. This was a question which, as far as she could recall, no-one had ever asked her before, neither during the game nor during her old life.
"I saw somepony else being bullied."
"Rainbow Dash?"
"Uhm. No?"
"Alright. Tell me who you are then, unless you need some urgent help first?"
"No, but I was going to ask you the same thing."
"I'm fine. What else?"
"I don't think talking about this is a good use of our time. If there is something I can help with-"
"You can help," the filly said, "by talking to me. What-"
"Is Twilight there?"
"Downstairs, why?"
"If there is a problem-"
"If you explain everything immediately relevant to your situation really quickly, I think it that make things go faster."
Fluttershy sighed. "I'm from another world, here briefly, got reason to think there's something I can help with."
"You know whom you're supposed to help?"
"No."
She was quick, at least. The exchange so far might have not been productive, but it certainly hadn't taken a lot of time.
"Chance of Twilight having a problem you could help with in a short time is low. You might be here to talk to me. I'd like to hear more."
"What's your name?"
"Call me Vi. What should I call you?"
"Fluttershy."
"Fluttershy, how much time do you have, and what else is immediately important?"
"Around twelve minutes total. After that I'm gone."
"How far in advance will you know?"
"Two minutes."
"Okay," Vi said, "you can come up and have a seat. Is the Fluttershỹ I know fine?"
"Yes."
"Tell me as much as possible about your situation," Vi said, taking a large book from a bed that was supposedly hers, situated next to Spike's, and gestured for Fluttershy to sit down beside her, "you can take up to three minutes."
Some part of Fluttershy realized that she was about to obey the commands of a ten-year old as she sat down, but at the same time, she found herself unwilling to protest. Now that she, perhaps for the first time ever, had met someone who was immediately treating the situation with the sense of urgency it warranted, she didn't want herself to be the weak link.
"When I was nineteen," she began, "about two years after Twilight's arrival in Ponyville, I made a trip through the Everfree Forest. I got lost, things seemed different... I... I don't remember it that well, it was strange, but at some point I realized that it wasn't normal. The Everfree is big, and there must have been parts I had never been to before, so at first I thought that was what had happened, but... it was just too strange. I never found my way back. It's been my home ever since. Most of the time I wander around, but whenever I fly, the forest finds me a passage to a place in Equestria, usually connected to one of us six. There is usually a problem and-"
"Sorry to interrupt, what about yourself, do you meet yourself?"
"Yes," Fluttershy just said, immediately causing a nod from the filly, so she continued. "There is usually a problem, and I solve it as best I can. Regardless of what happens, soon I'm forced to go back again. Uhm..."
She took a few moments to think of what to say next. Vi looked at her expectantly, not interrupting.
"There are rules to the game-"
"Game?"
"It's what I call it. Because the rules are so specific that I someone must have set it up. For example, I'm not allowed to carry water containers. And, uhm..."
She paused again, once more thinking about what-
"Can I ask questions?"
"Sure."
"Is it dangerous?"
Fluttershy nodded. "I never really came close to dying, but there were several times where something could have killed if..." She left the sentence unfinished.
"The ponies you meet, they forget-"
"Oh. No. I think they are different versions. The situations don't match."
"Woah," Vi made, at once standing up. "That's incredible. That changes... I..." She shook her head. "More." She began pacing around the room. "You need to tell me more. Who set it all up? Discord?"
"Probably," Fluttershy murmured, "but I don't know. I call him the mad god... whoever it is."
"What other rules?"
"I can only find water in the forest, not food," Fluttershy said at the top of her head, "so I need to do visits, which is what I call the trips to dimensions. They aren't exactly equally long, but pretty close. And I think there are even stages. Progress seems to be measured only by how much I travel, so I don't do visits more than I have to. And... it, uhm, twice it offered me to ascend to another stage I think, and when I didn't it repeated the first, but I got a reward."
"Reward?"
"It's hard to explain, but-"
"Never mind then. I agree that it sounds like it's almost certainly manufactured.
Fluttershy nodded.
"That's incredible," Vi said again, "it's..." She shook her head. "I'm being stupid. Can be surprised later. Need to think about what to discuss now... so, the ponies you meet, do they always seem normal?"
"Uh, Fluttershy made. "I'm not sure. I think so?"
"And no memories?"
"Of past visits? No, never. What are you getting at?"
"Nothing. I don't know. Just asking some obvious questions until I can think of good ones. But filtered situations?"
"You mean-"
"I mean that unlikely events happen more often than they tend to do in the normal world."
"Oh, yes."
"I see. So the mad god must monitor all other universes."
Fluttershy nodded. This thought was not new to her.
"He sits there and monitors everything. But you can choose when to visit?"
Fluttershy nodded again.
So either time can be bent somehow, which I don't believe is possible, or there are enough universes to always pick one, or..." She gulped. "Is there always a serious problem?
"Not always. But most of the time."
"Not always," Vi repeted. "That has to be good. Oh, yeez. How... how long has it been?"
"Years," Fluttershy murmured.
"You don't look older. Do you age normally?"
Fluttershy shook her head. "I don't age, I think."
"Dear Celestia!" Before Fluttershy could comprehend what kind of effect his answer had on Vi, she had already sped over from her spot in the middle of the room. "You don't age? Eternal life? Fluttershy, if your happiness is net positive and your chance of death arbitrarily small, you might have a higher expected value than half of Equestria combined!" For a few moments, she seemed to hyperventilate, until she closed her eyes, taking a few deep breaths. "This is insane. Fluttershy, can I come with you?"
"I..."
"Can I?"
"No!"
"You don't want me to or it's impossible?"
"It's impossible-"
"What's the evidence?"
"Twilight has tried," Fluttershy said, now feeling on the defensive, "twice, and nothing has ever suggested that there is any way. There was no progress when she tried."
She could see Vi biting her lip, and then-
She was crying?!
"I don't plan to die, Fluttershy," she said, now talking even faster than before, "but, but, Fluttershy, how do I know that I don't stop existing the moment you go back into the forest?"
Although similar thoughts had crossed her mind before, her instinct was to dismiss the concern immediately, and she followed it before she had the time to reconsider.
"That's crazy talk! Why would-"
"Fluttershy, what is more likely, many different universes existing separately, traversable only by you through mechanics that have been established by some kind of agent in the form of a game, but are otherwise completely independent and outweigh the ethical significance of your life by an order – no, by several orders of magnitude, or just one universe, just one permanent life, and you being teleported far away and stuff being set up there, consciousness being created but only temporarily, and then it terminates the moment you get back and the remaining time is used to rebuild it? It's all so tailored towards you. It's good that sometimes there is no problem, but even so, doesn't it look more like the creation hypothesis? Then again why would I even be conscious then? But maybe consciousness comes by itself. No-one knows. I, agh, I can't think this through now, this is stupid. It won't help me to know how bad or good the situation is, I just-"
"You know you existed before," Fluttershy interrupted her, "so-"
"Nonense," Vi said harshly, "a subjective observer doesn't have any way to determine when she was created if the brain is left unchanged. Swapping out the consciousness has no observable effect on the causal universe. Removing it, sure, but not swapping it."
"Then how do you know that doesn't-"
"I don't," Vi snapped. "I don't know that it doesn't happen anyway, once every time my exact particle structure changes, aka once per smallest time interval that exists in the universe. I'm already afraid enough of that, okay? I don't need it to be more likely."
She took a few more deep breaths. "I'm sorry, it's not your-"
"Of course," Fluttershy said, "don't waste your time apologizing, I'm not offended."
Vi nodded. "How do you get back?"
"I go back to the exact point where I have entered. I make another step and I'm back in the forest."
"Another step where to?"
"I, I don't know, I make a step and then-"
"Right," Vi cut her off, "right. okay. What if you don't go back?"
"I'm forced to, I feel the need and it gets stronger and stronger until-"
"Does it converge?"
"What?"
"Does it have a treshhold?"
"I don't think so. If it does I've never reached it."
"It tells you where to go?"
"Yes."
Vi nodded. "I see. I see I see I see I see... come on..." She hit her own skull with a front limb, her eyes closed. "Think think think think. Think! If there is a way if there's a way, an out, I must take it now..."
Deadly silence sunk in for a few moments, and Fluttershy wasn't sure if she had ever felt so afraid for-
"I'll try," Vi said, "I'll defintiely try and- tracking spell! Of course! We need Twilight-"
"No," Fluttershy cut her off. "No magic. Can't risk it."
Vi turned her head, licking her lips.
"Against the rules."
"I don't know. I don't take risks."
"Right," Vi said. "I wouldn't, either. You're more important than me, too, you're almost certainly conscious, but I... I'm now, but..."
Fluttershy rushed forward, kneeling down in front of the filly.
"Anything I can do. If it doesn't risk too much. Name it."
"I DON'T KNOW! Hold me when it happens. Put my hoof on the spot."
Fluttershy nodded.
"I don't know what else."
"If what you fear is true, Vi, the universe would have to be so cruel. I don't-"
"No," Vi replied immediately. "Weak argument. Chance for universe to have been optimized for utility is near zero. Chance for it to care about terminating the entire dimension is below one percent. Particularly because there is no suffering, so even if it's true, it's not so horrible that..." She left the sentence unfinished.
"I might come back to the same dimension one day."
"Has it ever happened?"
Fluttershy shook her head.
"Dammit," Vi cursed. "There might be arbitrarily many dimensions. Maybe infinitely many. Odds for hitting the same twice are zero, then, even if subjective consciousness is preserved."
"If you try infinitely often-"
"No," VI said, "it stays zero. A uniform distributions of all real numbers between zero and one has zero probability on each point. Points still happen, but the chance for each one to happen again remains zero after arbitrarily many tries. Can't have infinity tries even if you live forever. That space is uncountable, but I don't know how else you would approximate something over a countable set of-" She shook her head. "Doesn't matter. And it's way more likely that each one is created newly and even talking about hitting it again is nonsense."
She stood up again, once more pacing around the room.
"Outs," she murmured, "outs, outs, outs. We're assuming too much. Could all be off track completely. Third option. Fourth option. Talking the wrong things. No effect on what we do. Need to think options."
"If I meet the mad god at some point, maybe he will negotiate?"
"Yes." Vi spun around. "That's good. That has a non-zero chance of working."
Suddenly, the energy seemed to leave her.
"But why would you pick me..." she murmured.
"I don't know why," Fluttershy said firmly, "but I would. If it comes to it, I will."
Vi took a deep breath. "I don't trust you will keep that promise, but thank you."
"You're the only one who ever..." Fluttershy bit her lip.
Vi nodded. "Right. Of course I am. But I can tell you ahead of time that each subsequent consciousness of me you encounter will prefer they be saved."
"They're out of luck. If I can't save more than one."
Vi nodded. "Thanks," she whispered. "That reminds me, have you never met me before?"
Fluttershy shook her head. "I must have visited Twilight close to a hundred times, but you were never there. I..."
She stopped.
How did you go about telling somepony that they... it was a silly thing to worry about now, but-
"What?"
"Not everypony always exists," Fluttershy said carefully. Some-"
"Who's alive is different across dimensions? What about the elements?"
"Always there."
"What." Vi made. "That's so bizarre. What does it depend on?"
"I don't know."
"And I don't exist most of the time?"
"Or you aren't here? I don't know. Vi, I'm sorry-"
"I don't care much about existing more than once. It probably wouldn't be the same consciousness anyway. Although not even that's for sure."
Then she began pacing again. "What else..."
Another silence emerged, interrupted only by the filly's steps on the floor. A familiar feeling made Fluttershy feel sick to the stomach.
"A distinct code. It should work both ways. Something you remember from me, and something I remember from you."
"But why would that-"
"Not worth explaining. Not thought it through myself yet. Could have several reasons. You're on board?"
Fluttershy nodded. "I have my unique tune-"
"Too vague. Sorry, Fluttershy. Something more-" But she stopped. "No, sing it. Thinking too narrowly. Chance of universe caring about emotions is non-zero, with what you told me."
Fluttershy nodded again, took a deep breath and began to hum the tune. Vi's face was distorted in concentration, but as Fluttershy was finished she shook her head.
"Too complex. Won't remember. Can you repeat just the beginning?"
"I'll have to go in a minute," Fluttershy said, now with tears in her eyes.
"I CAN RECORD!" Vi suddenly shouted. "I'm so- do the first- wait, hold on."
Her horn lit, blue energy circling around it. "Way too hard for me. Will only have a few seconds. Repeat the beginning."
"Now?"
"Not yet."
Vi closed her eyes, the energy around her horn intensifying. "Now," she pressed out between closed teeth. Fluttershy gulped, but began immediately, as well as she could.
"Stop," Vi said after less than ten seconds. "I go it. Will also take a part of your body. Where is your skin thickest?"
"My hoof- wait, what about my mane?"
"Of course. Right." Vi bit on her lip, as her magic cut off a part of her own mane, then a part of Fluttershy's.
"Take this," she said, offering Fluttershy her own. "Will it stay with you after-"
"Don't know, usually things that decay fast work, others don't."
"Can you-"
"-put it in my mouth when I leave?"
Vi nodded. "Surrounded by your body."
"Of course. Vi..." She had already begun to retreat. Vi nodded, stepping closely beside her.
"I love you, Fluttershy," she whispered. "Both of you. Always have. You were so kind to me."
Tears dropped onto the ground, and Fluttershy made no attempt to hold them back. "I'll save you. If I can, and if-" She cut herself off. "It's here."
Vi nodded. "Me first."
Fluttershy nodded, halting in her walk to let the filly stand on the spot.
"Here?"
"Yeah, right there."
"I don't feel-"
"Vi, I have to go."
"Right." Vi stepped aside, clutching to Fluttershy's front hoof as she took the last steps."
"I'm at the spot," Fluttershy said. "Next step brings me back." She swallowed, then took the hair in her mouth, closing it.
"Right. Right. Now... ah, just go." She tightened her grasp. "Two- wait, my code! Seven seven four, remember it! Now, two, one-"
Simultaneously, holding each other as tightly as they could, they each made a step.
The next moment, Fluttershy was alone in the forest.
The hair in her mouth had disappeared.
Tears dwelt freely out of her eyes, and her hooves gave way beneath her.
