Twilight casually walked down the halls of her castle, her nose deep in another book as she automatically wandered around her own home. It was only when she heard the familiar voices of her friends that caused her to pause in front of her throne room door and lift her head up.

Her mind quickly rewound through the day, trying to remember if at one point she let anyone inside, but came up with nothing.

She opened up the door to find her Ponyville friends sitting at their respective seats around the table, stacks of bits in front of them. Twilight was quick to notice that there were two empty seats.

“Hi, Twilight!” Pinkie casually waved.

“...What are you all doing here?” Twilight asked suspiciously as she approached the table.

Spike casually waved a dismissive claw. “Oh, I let them in while you were taking one of your cold showers.”

“We were just makin’ our yearly wager,” Applejack explained. “Ya wanna join in?”

“Wager?”

“Oh, it’s just something the rest of us have been doing for a while,” Rarity explained. “We’re making our guesses on what day Rainbow Dash is going to lose this little challenge.”

“You’ve been making bets on when she’d lose? That’s-wait what do you mean ‘a while’?”

“We um, kinda only did it as previous winners,” Fluttershy nervously giggled. “Oh! But you can totally do it with us now this year!”

“Yeah, come on, join the fun!” Pinkie said, egging her on.

Twilight took a seat at her own throne. “Fine, is it just...picking a date and that’s it?”

“The main rule is no sabotage of any kind,” Rarity explained. “Dash’s downfall must be of her own accord, without any direct temptation from us. We can still talk and do other things with her, of course, but we cannot intentionally cause her to lose.”

“Course, if someone else happened to get her to clop out, that’s a different matter entirely.” Applejack grinned.

Twilight nodded along. “Makes sense, so is that all there is to it?”

Spike leaned back, propping his feet up on the table. “Pretty much, we just pick a date and whoever guessed the closest wins the whole pot.”

“So we’re just...running off the assumption that Rainbow Dash is going to lose again this year?” Twilight furrowed her brow, displeased that her friends were assuming the worst in her.

“Oh please, Twilight, have you seen her performance in previous years?” Rarity scoffed. “Her endurance may be impressive, but she has no impulse control whatsoever!”

Applejack chuckled. “Yeah, she’s bound to crack eventually, the question’s just a matter of when.”

“She said she didn’t have a specific strategy this year,” Spike noted, tapping his foot on the table’s surface.

Pinkie briefly sputtered with a giggle. “That’s not very helpful, it’s not like any of her strategies worked before.”

Fluttershy tapped her chin with her hoof. “She said that the Wonderbolts were going to start practicing for their upcoming shows in a couple of weeks...It could happen then.”

“Ah, good point, Fluttershy!” Rarity chimed in. “I can absolutely see all the physical activity getting to be too much for her, especially in the locker room! That would give a good timeframe, but still so many options that it wouldn’t be easy to narrow down...”

Twilight was stunned by the strategic discussion her friends were giving. “You guys put a lot of thought into this, huh?”

Applejack gestured to the amount of bits they were all wagering. “When there’s this much on the line, ya gotta do your research!”

Pinkie turned to Fluttershy. “Hey, is your brother going to be in town any time this month?”

“Riiiight,” Spike nodded. “Nothing turns Dash off more than Zephyr Breeze in any sort of capacity.”

“Zephyr said that he’d be away for the month at his job, but...I can never tell when he might just drop in for a ‘surprise visit’...” Fluttershy sighed. “I can’t make any guarantees.”

The entire table looked down in deep thought as they tried to strategize, going through all the possibilities they could.

“Ah’m gonna say day 10,” Applejack said, breaking the silence by pushing her bits towards the center of the table. “Girl’s gonna crumble fast this year.”

“Applejack, please. Have a little faith in our friend, why don’t you?” Rarity shook her head in disapproval, before putting her bits in. “Obviously she’ll fail on the 17th. The stress from all the Wonderbolts’ training will be her demise.”

“I’m gonna pick the 28th!” Pinkie said, haphazardly throwing her money in. “I just have a good feeling that something big will happen on that day. Not like in a Pinkie Sense sort of feeling, just a regular gut feeling.”

Spike slid his pile of bits in next. “I think it’ll be the 14th. Without a plan, she’s not gonna know what to do, and she’ll give in quick.”

Fluttershy shook her head. “I think Dashie has been improving, little by little. Even without her previous strategies available to her, she’s shown some more restraint. I believe that she’ll make it to at least the 24th this year!”

Finally, Twilight weighed in on her bet, teleporting her own bits to put into the pile. “I think she’ll go on the 19th. Like Rarity said, there’s a high chance of her going out when she goes back to Wonderbolt HQ, but she might last a bit longer. However, Soarin’ is also participating with us as well, and his horniness might inadvertently lead to her downfall. Possibly his own, too.”

With a collective revelatory “Ohhhhh”, the others nodded at Twilight’s logic.

Twilight looked at the massive amount of bits put on the line. “So...where are you girls keeping the bet money safe?”

“Mayor Mare’s gonna hold it till it’s time for the payout,” Applejack explained.

They stared at all the bits piled up in the middle of the table, each one of them imagining what kind of spoils they could get with the earnings should they win.

Author's Note

Being a good friend means accepting your friend for all their faults.

Being a best friend means using those faults to your advantage.