Hornavík has fallen, and soon the rest of Austurland will follow. However, I remain burdened with the knowledge that the mortal world does not move at the pace I desire. I would have wanted the invasion to have been completed by now, but it seems I will have to wait a few more weeks. As always, the limiting factor remains logistics, where I must oversee the production and distribution of ever more equipment and ponypower, which the army has never done at this scale.

Each crate of ammunition produced requires a respective division of which it is resupplying. Transportation then must be arranged to a train depot, where it must be scheduled a train to the supply hub closest to the division. Then, it must be properly unloaded, re-loaded onto trucks, and then navigated to the front, only then arriving at its destination. It is a delicate dance every hour of every day involving thousands of creatures, and must be repeated for food, clothing, shovels, guns, orders, and all sorts of other materiel. Missing a single shipment means risking combat effectiveness, and so the stream must be continuous, but yet also handle changes in demand as fighting intensifies in specific regions.

While invading Kasa, the army stuck to its traditional methods of having supplies pulled by cart - the traditional way. While it was horribly inefficient, it was at least something it had experience doing. With my recent introduction of trains and even more recent introduction of trucks, the army has had to learn how to do logistics from the ground up, and the transition has not been smooth. I have considered intervening and taking over certain operations myself, but that defeats the purpose of having a system in the first place. The army will simply have to learn how to handle the new technologies as they come. I can direct them, but reliance on me is not an option.

Those who say that there doesn’t exist a perfect system are fools. It is easy to look at the modern state of logistics and how the problem remains unsolved with varying doctrines all equally viable given different scenarios and conclude, therefore, that it cannot be determined which is better given the imperfections of the world. While it is true the world is imperfect, that has no bearing on whether a theoretically perfect system does exist. In the space of definable systems, the system with the greatest efficiency of delivering equipment to the front lines is the perfect system. You can define efficiency in any way that you want to, but for each, there exists a corresponding system which is the optimal solution given that outcome. The question should actually be framed if one should seek the perfect system rather than simply dismissing that one does not exist.

It is helpful to model the feature landscape of how to do logistics as an x/y plane. Of course, the reality of logistics is that there are far more than just two variables to change, but the model applies just as well in hyperdimensional spaces. In this plane, each point represents a way to do logistics. For example, the x axis may represent something like the dichotomy between push and pull logistics whereas the y axis may represent something like the level of motorization. The general trend is clear - pull logistics and motorization are good with high values in both scoring higher than any other point in the plane. Therefore, the ideal army of today must do both, which is why I have moved Viirad towards both.

Of course, this is the problem with optimization. The space is assumed to be continuously differentiable, and gradient descent can only happen in increments. I cannot simply teleport the nation to the optimal strategy in the plane - it must happen over time. If I were to revamp the entire system from the ground up tomorrow, for instance, it would doubtlessly fail miserably with confused creatures not knowing what to do and not enough trains and trucks to do it. The good will of the mind controlled can make the process move faster, but not faster than the production of infrastructure and expertise building. If there are regions of low efficiency on the way to the best system, as long as the general trend is good enough, I must seek the perfect system.

There is always the golden goose “what if'' scenario where if you apply just the right amount of x and y, there is a sudden bump in efficiency that causes a strange global maximum to appear not near any of the extremes, but I highly doubt one exists for logistics. Theoretical models of complex functions may cause mathematicians to encounter such peculiarities, but reality usually doesn’t work that way. To those who encounter these scenarios in real life, I would say that your models are not accurate enough.

I have modeled the system discretely, not continuously, as that better represents the way logistics are carried out. Perhaps that is the wrong way to say it - of course statistics like the number of trains in a station are relatively continuous, but in reality, I can impose a policy only in large chunks at a time, as menu costs amongst other factors prevent a continuous implementation of new policies.

Some policies are “to demand”, and one way to model that would be to view that as a discrete factor in itself, albeit somewhat divorced from the standard function landscape. For example, a “to demand” assignment of trains does not lie on a scale of 1 to 100 trains, but that is where the model begins to break down. As for my actual analysis, I have listed all possible factors I can control, for example whether to use motorized transportation from the factory to train depots, and then evaluated each potential policy I could make out of every possible combination of discrete factors. This would be impossible for a normal creature, but my enhanced information processing abilities have allowed me to analyze the entire function space and come up with the perfect system.

With the knowledge of the perfect system, I have charted a path of policy changes towards that end subject on the adoption of new systems that should maximize my benefit while avoiding large drops in efficiency along the way. Unfortunately, as they say, no plan survives first contact with the enemy, and adoption is slower than I had hoped. It is correct for me to keep pushing, but I am wary of pushing too hard. My subjects are rather zealous in their service, and I predict that if I push too hard to achieve an objective, it is easy for their short-sighted minds to forget my long-term objective and make bad moves that will reach certain quotas or such in the short term. Mind control does not bestow long-term decision-making abilities.

In the same vein, it is a bit funny to me that it only took a few weeks for me to travel the length and breadth of Kasa and mind control all of its cities and towns along the rail system but will take much longer to integrate them. One would think that a populace of obedient, eager to serve, creatures would be quick to organize, and while it may still be true in comparison, it still takes time given the current size of my bureaucracy.

In the task of organizing the population into their roles in my state, I have necessarily had to document everycreature, resulting in a census of sorts. Then as to where to send each of these ponies, griffons, zebras, and deer, I have had to organize grand swathes of procedures and related documents to verify identities, assess abilities, and then judge them. In the case of exceptional individuals, there is a pipeline in place for reevaluation and information passing such that I can weigh in on some myself, which can then become precedents to be followed later.

The amount of paperwork is simply breathtaking. It is not enough to simply have every Kasan submit a form with their information on it. Special cases must be made for the illiterate to be evaluated as well, which means I must have an interview system as well - yet another reason why I must take care to educate the masses. I suppose an interview system cannot be avoided entirely, as suspect papers must be scrutinized. One might ask who would forge such a form, but one must then also consider that not everyone in my nation is mind controlled. There still do exist those hostile to my regime who have simply been quieted down since losing their command structure. Though their activities are slowed by the harsh Barradian climate I have imposed upon the land, they could resume any time. Seeking to slow my empire’s growth, they could try and interfere with my integration of their country through more covert means like flooding my offices with fake forms.

That isn’t to mention the potential for foreign adversaries to interfere as well. Soon, I suspect the Watchers will become aware of foreign agents attempting to gain intelligence in Viirad followed swiftly by subversive actions. While this isn’t a point of concern today, one cannot expect to take over the world without a little foresight. These are both real factors, but the real reason to have this infrastructure on the ground is to work through the dishonest. While it may not seem clear at first why a faithful servant of mine would do such a thing, I have found that the nature of creatures to boast and present themselves in favorable lights persists even after they begin to worship me. I believe that some are simply braggarts through and through, but it is also in the self-interest of the less prideful creatures to improve their own lives, and thus shoot slightly higher than their actual worth. I purposefully did not remove this drive for the benefits it gives, but it also means I must deal with its drawbacks as well.

The first few Kasans that have made it through the system are adapting well. The unifying message under me is helping smooth any potential hiccups, though what I had written about before about building systems of indoctrination to keep it that way is still to be developed. Full integration is, however, a ways away, with centers around the nation still being set up. I estimate it will be a few more months before I can fully get everycreature into the system. Once that is done, there is work required for which military training camp, vocational school, factory, or research institute to send every creature to.

Speaking of research institutes, I visited Seguro and its universities. Seguro is hardly a modern metropolis, but once I was past the slums and shanty towns, I was able to find value in the richer parts of town. A little mind control and they were more than willing to contribute their minds to my cause. I have planned massive increases in class size as I need to drive the population through the educational system as fast as possible to become as productive as possible.

The same goes for the Kasan military academies, as without properly trained officers, I will not succeed. The army’s officer class now is composed of far too many Barradian nobles - a system of education that guarantees little in the ways of competence or intelligence. Integration with my military is ongoing, but the ever-present reality of education is its time-consuming nature.

I’m sensing something. I have the feeling that I’m being watched. It isn’t a feeling most would recognize, but my seer experience tells me exactly what is happening - someone is scrying on me. Light does interact with scrying windows, but they leave a much more prominent magical than physical hoofprint. Reaching out, I can sense the “fibers” of magic linking the window back to its caster. I use a trick I figured out as a young seer in training to trace the fibers and locate the source of the casting.

As expected, the trail leads back to Austurland. I open up a scrying window of my own at the source, revealing an older buck looking down in a circular scrying pool. Not a bad setup. Around are the decorations of a temple, suggesting that the site is one that has been used for many hundreds of years for this task. This buck may be one of the only seers in Austurland, trained in a small community as one of the only ones capable of performing this task - sentenced to do so for life due to his irreplaceability.

Through my window, I see the image of myself in his pool. I opened my own window just out of view of his window, so he doesn’t see what I’m doing. However, it seems he has noticed I am looking up whereas before I was looking down. I see the image in the pool shift as he moves it, trying to see what I’m looking at. I would rather he not see me scrying on him, so I take the moment to dispel his window, causing the image in the scrying pool to fade away back into the buck’s regular reflection.

This seems to have startled him. I wonder if he can piece together what’s happening. His face looks unsure at first, but then suddenly afraid. He seems to have at least realized something is wrong. He turns around, looking at each corner of the room before turning his gaze directly into where my window is. He may not be able to see me anymore, but it seems he knows he’s being watched. It looks like he’s about to cast dispellere, so I prepare the standard counterspell for it. His spell is nullified the moment his antlers glow, which causes him to panic.

Interestingly, he dashes back to the scrying pool and begins to cast another spell. I’m not sure what he’s trying to cast, but I prepare counterspells for any offensive action he could take. None are used, as he instead casts a divination spell, causing the image in the pool to once again change. However, instead of scrying, it appears to be a window into the room itself - a view into the future.

In the image, he is able to see what will happen in the room a few minutes into the future, but instead of showing some sort of magical battle between myself and him or an empty room caused by him running away, the image just shows his own body, limp and lifeless on the ground exactly where he is standing right now. The sight of his own dead body stuns him for a moment, before he simply sits down and gives up.

That is the nature of seeing the future. The nature of time is steady state - if one looks at the future and sees something, that is what will occur taking into account that you have now looked at the future. It is a fool’s errand to try and change or manipulate the image in the scrying pool, and this buck knows it. Thus, there is nothing for him to do but wait for me to kill him.

There is a story taught to every young seer of an ancient seer named Näkyjä who looked into a scrying pool to see a great fire in her village. Realizing she couldn’t change the image itself, she sought to change the reason behind it. Fearing it could be caused by invaders, she sought instead to create the fire herself as to prevent an invasion. Näkyjä set her own village on fire, but as the dust settled, their neighbors, seeing their weakness, decided to occupy the lands anyway. It is taught as a lesson to be level-headed, as if you aren’t likely to take drastic actions, the images in the pool are likely to be less drastic themselves. If Näkyjä was not so fearful of the image in the pool, the pool would not have shown her something that would have ended in her village burning down. If you cannot control yourself, it is better to not see at all, for, in Näkyjä’s case, if she never looked into the future, it is taught that she never would have burned her village down and they could have made preparations for invaders.

That isn’t to say divination is useless. It is theoretically possible to glean information about the future about, say, technology where one gains insight from seeing one’s own image in the pool and uses it to create a new technology, but that is limited by the insight of the deer looking, and is not all that consistent. Oftentimes, the image just shows the inventor continuing to work without much insight being made, which can be disheartening. The best results come from timed presentations of technology in set locations that can give insights to researchers when divined on later. The researchers can then go on to invent those things, causing the information to have effectively birthed from nowhere, but it isn’t an exact science yet, and I never found a guaranteed method to make it work back when I used to do it in Olenia.

I digress. That is all to say that this buck giving up makes perfect sense. If he didn’t give up, the image would have shown an empty room, but as it shows him dead, that means he will give up as he has. One could say he has the choice now to leave, but if that were in his nature, the pool would have shown it as so. Theoretically, if he were the fighting type, the image in the pool may have instead shown his dead body slightly closer to the door, as I would have definitely killed him if he tried to escape.

I now too have a choice. I could kill him as it showed in the pool, or I could leave him alive. I have seen the future and know the choice I will make. Could I defy fate and simply not? Maybe, but I have no desire to do so. If I had the desire to defy fate the image in the pool would have shown something else. I take it as an affirmation in my own self-control that he will die. Unlike Näkyjä, I am consistent and have the forethought to carry through to certain ends regardless of the image I see with no regard for petty rebellion. It makes sense to kill him: seers provide great wartime benefits to their side in a war.

I decide not to try and recall the image of the buck’s dead body and use it to determine how I killed him in the vision. It is quaint to me to know that no matter what method I decide to use, it will be the method that killed him in the image in the future. If I try to think about how he died in the pool’s image and figure it out, I will inevitably conclude it was (will be?) the best way to do it and perform the same action. To save on the mental effort, I will simply exercise my will now. I fashion a blade from telekinetic energy, which the buck notices, and he simply raises his neck to allow it forth. I reward him for the acceptance of his fate with a quick slice, which causes him to promptly fall over and begin bleeding out with minimal spasming.

I could have attempted to mind control him, but given his magical abilities, he could have fought back - especially knowing that I was watching him, actively trying to cast a spell on him. For now, the matter is dealt with. I have not yet had to deal with magical adversaries on this level yet, but I will have to soon when it comes to dealing with Wittenland and their famed unicorn mages. The griffons and zebras have some magic as well, but by then I will have a much larger army. The real worries magic-wise are the Equestrians and the Changelings, but they are far too distracted by the Great War to interfere with my plans for now. The news says the Changelings are winning, with the optimal outcome for me being either a stalemate or a false victory where one side is left to deal with uprisings for decades to come. Infighting will be their weakness against my unity.

Author's Note

Dispellere is the name I've given to the spell that Celestia casts at the end of Lesson Zero that makes everyone normal again. I have modeled it as a spell that dispels all magic in an area.

I hope you all enjoyed the story of Näkyjä that I made up.