Author's Note

This is a rather silly idea I’ve had that’s still been sitting on my gdocs. I figured I might as well publish it; apologies in advance if it’s underwhelming.

Newcomb

“You have a choice,” Omega said. Twilight blinked as a sudden light was turned on, illuminating two boxes before her. One was made out of glass, with something golden shimmering inside, the other was black.

“In the glass box, as you can see, there are a hundred bits. In the opaque box, there are are either a thousand, or nothing at all.”

Twilight took a step closer. Indeed, there were ten 10-bit coins clearly visible inside of the glass box.

“You have a choice,” Omega repeated. “You can either take just the opaque box, or...”

– ⊚ –

“... both of them.”

“Pardon?”

“You can either take just the opaque box, or both of them,” Omega repeated.

Applejack frowned. “And why would I just take one, if I can take two?”

“Because...”

– ⊚ –

“... I predicted what you would do in advance.”

“Did you, now?”

“And my prediction has determined the contents of the opaque box. You see, if I predicted that you would take both boxes, then I have put nothing inside of the opaque box. But if I predicted you just take the opaque box, I have put a thousand bits inside.”

“But...” Rarity gave a frown.

– ⊚ –

“... your choice has already been made?” Twilight asked?

“Yes.”

“So, no matter what you did, taking both boxes now will always mean I have a hundred bits more than I’ll have if I take just one box, right?”

“That is correct.”

– ⊚ –

“So, if I take just one box I’ll walk outta here with a thousand bits, but if I take both, I walk out with a hundred bits?”

“That is correct.”

“Well.” Rainbow raised an eyebrow. She extended a hoof around the opaque box and, as nopony resisted, pulled it close. In a single, swift motion, she removed the lid using her mouth.

It was filled to the brim with golden bits.

“Sweet! Can I go?”

“You may.”

“Cool.” Putting the lid back on top, Rainbow took the box under her wing, flying outside.

That was easy.

– ⊚ –

“... but, you already decided what to put in there, haven’t you?”

“That is correct.”

“Why, this is not fair! I don’t have a choice here. Either there is money in the black box, or there is not. You are merely punishing me for the kind or pony I am!”

Omega said nothing.

“Therefore, yes, it would be silly not to take both boxes,” she concluded. But, just as she was about pull both boxes close using her telekinesis, she stopped.

“You saw this coming, didn’t you? You knew that I was going to take both boxes, so you put nothing inside. I cannot possibly win this. Hmpf, how rude!”

Omega said nothing.

“I should take one box, simply to show you off. Some kind of forecaster you are. Hah! I, Rarity, shall prove you wrong!” And she pulled the opaque box close.

“... hold on.” She pushed the box back away. “No. Give me a moment.”

– ⊚ –

“Celestia help me...” Twilight murmured. “For I don’t know what to do.” Her breathing was quick, shallow. “There is proof that taking both boxes is the right thing to do. There is no doubt. But if I do...” she bit her lip. “I can’t win this, can I? You knew I would know this. You knew I would have to take both boxes. You are punishing me for understanding causality. Why?”

Both boxes were enveloped in a purple cloud.

“It doesn’t matter...” She gave a sad sigh. “I already lost...”

And yet...

If she was simply going to grab the opaque box... she knew it was wrong, but if she just did it, she would get the thousand bits, and then...

Then she would win.

But if that was what was going to happen, then she had already won.

So why not take both boxes?

But this argument proved that she would lose anyway. In fact, this was why she would lose anyway. Because either way, taking both lead to the superior outcome, and therefore...

But what if she just took one right now?

– ⊚ –

“I dun believe ya, misses. Readin’ other folk’s minds is something out of stories for lil’ fillies. No pony in their right mind will just pass on a hundred bits, now.” Applejack took both boxes, opening the opaque one. “... hmpf. As if you’d have ever really given me more...”

– ⊚ –

“Oh, dear. I don’t really need a thousand bits. I’m not sure I should... can I only take the glass box?”

Omega shook their head.

“Oh. I see. Well, I don’t want to be greedy, so...”

Cautiously, Fluttershy took the opaque box, pulling it close.

“This is enough for me. Really. Oh, but if I only take this, I get more bits, don’t I? Oh, but on the other hoof, maybe... I could really use some extra space in my home... oh, not for my sake, you see, I just have a lot of animals living with me, and some of them don’t enjoy, um, living so closely tied up. So...”

Fluttershy took the opaque box, opening it. With a shy smile, she closed it again, feeling only a little bit guilty.